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One Simple Idea by Stephen Key.

Correspondence with Mr. X29
(about One Simple Idea by Stephen Key)

Table of contents

1) S. Jetchick (2013-Nov-24)

1) S. Jetchick (2013-Nov-24)

[This is just a draft. Important stuff tends to be toward the bottom]

Before you asked me to read it, I had never heard of either Stephen
Key or his book called One Simple Idea(McGraw-Hill, 2011). So here are some
comments after reading it.

As you can imagine, the first impression one gets when picking up
such a book is: "Jeepers, yet another snake-oil salesman". It has
all the usual trappings of wishful thinking, like promising a
life of pleasure and rest, while "letting others do the work", or
casually hinting at huge salaries which the author is supposedly
making, just by listening to his own magical advice, or quoting Walt
Disney "If you can dream it, you can do it", which is of course
false, etc.

But I'll try to forget that first impression

"I don't have a degree in engineering, marketing or business.
I don't own a big company, nor am I employedby a big company.
Instead, companies work for me [...] I sit back collecting
royalty checks [...] and enjoying the life of my dreams with
my beautiful wife and our three children. And I wrote this
book to show you how you can do the same" (p. xiii) "When
the recession hit, it didn't impact me." (p. xv) He is
"totally debt-free" and "comfortably" pays for the best colleges
for all his children. "The cars we drive, all purchased with
cash, are probably too expensive. [...] Anybody can do what
I've done, including you." (p. xvi)

"[...] are you one of the millions of people world-wide who
are unemployed? Do you want a livelihood that can't be
snatched away through a single stroke of bad luck, like layoff
or illness? Or are you one of the many millions more who are
underemployed, struggling to make ends meet and bored to tears
in a dead-end job?" (p. 3)

"[...] you hear a lot of doomsayers forecasting the end of
the American Dream. [...] In fact, it is more alive, more
accessible, and far more exciting than it has ever been in
the history of our country." (p. 5)

"I tell my inventRight students not to waste their time on
prototypes and patents" (p. 12)

"And licensing can be very lucrative. Just ask the thousands
of people, like me, who are enjoying the licensing lifestyle"
(p. 34)

The underlying assumption is (as usual) that fads are normal
economic activity. Students of Economics can easily rattle
off examples of fads that made their inventors immensely rich,
while costing almost nothing in Research and Development.

Pet Rock box (complete with holes to let the rock breath!).
Pet Rock box (complete with holes to let the rock breath!).

My favorite example is the "Pet Rock". Some excerpts from Wikipedia
(the perfect source of information for things that are silly
and unimportant): "Gary Dahl [...] sold 1.5 million Pet Rocks and
became a millionaire. [...] Dahl's biggest expense was the die-cutting
and manufacture of the boxes. The rocks only cost a penny each, and
the straw was nearly free. For the initial run of booklets, Dahl had a
printing job for a client and "tacked" the pet rock booklet onto the
main job. This resulted in a batch requiring only a cut and trim, at
almost no cost except some labor."

The author is very proud of one of his ideas: "I dreamt up a
Valentine's Day dart with a suction cup and a flag reading "I'm
stuck on you". That idea brought me 10000$ in advance income
with zero upfront investment." (p. xv)

The problem with fad-based income is that it only works for a
microscopic minority, in a very large country, where many people
have a lot of disposable income.

"On any given day, I've gotten out six different ideas out to
different companies." (p. xv) Wow, not exactly rest!

"It used to be that a country's manufacturing capacity
determined its dominance in the global economy: the higher
a country's gross domestic product (GDP), the bigger its
share of the global market. Not anymore. Today, the country's
that dominate the world economy are the ones that product
the most ideas." (p. 19)

constant ranting about big companies who don't know how to
innovate, whereas small peckerwoods like him do  (p. 19)

"40 percent of consumer spending is discretionary and driven
by desire, not necessity." p. 22

"With licensing, you are the chief innovation officer (CIO)
of your idea rather than the CEO of your business.
You wear one hat: the creative one." p. 27

He claims he has licensed 20 products (p. 32 and p. 33.) in
30 years of work (p. xiv) at 6 ideas a day (p. xv).

How does he come up with these magical ideas? "Let's go back
to my hypothetical hammer idea." p. 44. Why not take a real
idea, one that will generate millions of dollars, and just
drop it for free for the world to enjoy?

"Everyone is creative. Being creative is simply looking at
something from a different perspective. It's turning something
upside-down and looking at it through a child's eyes, seeing
no limitations, seeing only possibilities. Creativity comes
naturally to children [...] I remember, as a kid, [...]
thinking I could build a jet pack, strap it to my back, and
fly through the sky." p. 47

Yeah but, how many things can we buy at the store that have
been "created" by children? None whatsoever. Why? I thought
it was simple, that "You just need to tap into that
childlike creativity within"? (p. 48) "Let the child in you
come out." p. 50

Much of his heuristical advice is to hang around shopping malls
(p. 49) Very American, very decadent American! look at trendy
entertainment and fashion magazines. p. 50.

Lonnie Johnson, Super Soaker, p. 52

"I have never spent more than 100$ making a prototype" p. 100

starting p. 113 (chap. 11), he describes how to protect IP.
He doesn't like patents. PPA, USPTO, 1995, very USA-specific.

At every step of the way (market study, invention, acquiring
IP, selling the idea), he has long lists of the many things
you need to do. It all ends up being a full-time job with
many worries and hassles and efforts and disappointments, etc.,
just as he said we could avoid... In other words, if you end
up working an honest day's work, you might get paid for an
honest day's work...

p. 124. "I have 13 patents on my Spinformation label". p. 122 "I
have 13 patents".

"The vast majority were licensed using a benefit statement, a
sell sheet, and a PPA." p. 129.

"It is also critical to have anyone who looks at your idea sign
a nondisclosure agreement (NDA) first. p. 133

He never says what his income is, what it has been over the
hears, and especially never gives a breakdown of money gained
per idea.

"I cannot say this often enough: do not quit your day job. Do
not mortgage your house to the hilt, go into debt, and use up
your kids college education funds and your retirement funds."
p. 149

"Companies want to know they're dealing with a legitimate
business, with a professional who knows how to develop
an idea for the market [...] You can cultivate an air of
legitimacy with a professional website, business cards,
letterhead, a dedicated phone line, and a dedicated business
address." p. 152.

- p. 222: overview of the whole process.

He keeps blasting the "old-school approach" of fancy prototypes
and patents. But he then describes just about exactly the old-school
approach, but using examples of extremely simple inventions
that don't require fancy prototypes, licensed in a country that
provides PPAs...

The whole book is a long example of confirmation bias. This student
sold his idea, that student overcame her fear of cold-calling,
etc. How many students have you had? How many are now earning how
much after how many years of efforts?

The whole book is VERY short on heuristics. It basically assumes
you'll invent many very profitable inventions. It assumes the
hard part away.

He doesn't outright tell lies in his book, but doesn't tell all
the truth either.

The whole book is like a dieting book that says: "Forget about the
old-fashioned approach of painful exercise and soul-crushing
restraint from all the foods you desire the most. With my whoopy-o-matic
method, you'll make lots of money, loose lots of pounds and have
a rip-roaring good time at it. Here is my whoopy-o-matic
method: let's assume you have the willpower to easily stop eating
anytime. Just stop eating junk food, eat just a little bit of
healthy food, and exercise a lot. Then do this for a long, long time."

His ideas are mostly for merchandising junk. Now wonder he says
you don't need to be an engineer! Not for slapping Celine Dion's
picture on toilet paper you don't! ("Micheal Jordan Wall Ball",
"Spinformation" label, "Graveyard Picks" for playing guitar, and
that is about all he actually describes about his ideas).

The average "inventor" is just a social misfit who thinks he can
outsmart big corporations.

The conclusion for Mister X29 is: According to Stephen Key, forget
about all this invention stuff and start by getting a day job.

Would be fun to compare 3 things: CCC, some science paper, and
this book. Science has more: "We made 382 tries, 3 were successful"
type of honesty. CCC has more: "All I can promise is blood, toil,
sweat and tears" type of honesty. Key's book is almost like atheist
"gospel" at first, and then boils down to "yeah, the old-fashioned
method of inventing is eternally the only one, except for marketing
fads, which don't require any invention per se".

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